Socioeconomic and Demographic (SED) forecasts are federally-required for long-term analysis and provide necessary data inputs to the New York Best Practice Model (NYBPM). They are vital in the development of Regional Transportation Plans, transportation conformity analysis and decision-making on the use of federal transportation funds.
NYMTC’s forecasts are produced in five-year intervals for counties within the following sub-regions:
- New York City;
- Long Island;
- New Jersey (14 counties); and
- Connecticut (3 counties).
Models have been developed to forecast:
- Labor Force; and
Generally, the following steps are taken when producing forecasts:
- Data collection and analysis;
- Generating preliminary forecasts;
- Holding Forecasting Working Group (FWG) meetings to review forecasts and achieve consensus;
- Holding public meetings; and
- Adoption by the Program, Finance and Administration Committee (PFAC).
Models' outputs are
- POPULATION: Total Population, Household Population, Group Quarters Population, each by age and sex group.
- EMPLOYMENT: Total Employment, Payroll Employment, Self-Employment, each by industry.
- LABOR FORCE: Total Labor Force, Employed Labor Force, each by age and sex group.
- HOUSEHOLDS: Total Households.