Socioeconomic and Demographic (SED) Forecasts

Socioeconomic and Demographic (SED) forecasts are federally-required for long-term analysis and provide necessary data inputs to the New York Best Practice Model (NYBPM). They are vital in the development of Regional Transportation Plans, transportation conformity analysis and decision-making on the use of federal transportation funds. 

NYMTC’s forecasts are produced in five-year intervals for counties within the following sub-regions: 

  • New York City;
  • Long Island;
  • Mid-Hudson;
  • New Jersey (14 counties); and
  • Connecticut (3 counties).

Models have been developed to forecast:

  • Population; 
  • Employment;
  • Labor Force; and 
  • Households.

Generally, the following steps are taken when producing forecasts:

  • Data collection and analysis;
  • Generating preliminary forecasts;
  • Holding Forecasting Working Group (FWG) meetings to review forecasts and achieve consensus;
  • Holding public meetings; and
  • Adoption by the Program, Finance and Administration Committee (PFAC).

Model Outputs

Models' outputs are

  • POPULATION: Total Population, Household Population, Group Quarters Population, each by age and sex group.
  • EMPLOYMENT: Total Employment, Payroll Employment, Self-Employment, each by industry.
  • LABOR FORCE: Total Labor Force, Employed Labor Force, each by age and sex group.
  • HOUSEHOLDS: Total Households.