Socioeconomic and Demographic Forecasting (SED)

Forecasts (population, employment, labor force and households) provide necessary data inputs to the Best Practice Model (BPM).  They are also needed for the Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) and the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) update.  Forecasts are mandated by Federal requirements for long-term analysis in transportation and land use.

NYMTC’s Forecasts

Forecasts are produced by:

• Five-year intervals
• Five sub-regions: New York City, Long Island, Mid-Hudson,
  New Jersey and Connecticut
• Disaggregated to 31 counties: 14 in NY, 14 in NJ and 3 in CT

Methodologies used in generating forecasts:

• Population: Age-Cohort Survival Model
• Employment: Econometric Model
• Labor Force (LF): Population cohorts flow to LF Model, which interacts with Population Model and utilizes controls from Employment Model
• Households: Function of projected population and household formation rates

Models’ outputs are:

POPULATION
Subregional level: by age groups, sex and race/ethnicity
County level: total population

EMPLOYMENT
Subregional and county levels: by industry and occupation

LABOR FORCE
Subregional level: by age groups, sex and race/ethnicity
County level: total labor force

HOUSEHOLDS
Subregional level: household population and average household size by race/ethnicity; households by tenure, by type of household, by age of householder, by size of household, by household income, by housing stock preference, and by race/ethnicity
County level: total households

A process outlined below is usually followed
to produce forecasts:

• Data collection and analysis
• Recalibrate existing models
• Generate preliminary, revised and final forecasts
• Hold Forecasting Working Group (FWG) meetings, and review forecasts
• Hold public meetings
• Adoption by the Program, Finance, and Administration Committee (PFAC)