Best Practice Model (NYBPM)
The Travel Demand Forecasting Model for the
New York Metropolitan Area

Efficient and effective transportation systems improve mobility and help communities flourish. They support regional economic development and preserve the quality of life in neighborhoods. Planning for transportation infrastructures requires the ability to forecast travel demand on the transportation system through models that consider the complex movement of individuals and goods in order to meet the changing needs of the traveling public.

The New York Metropolitan Transportation Council (NYMTC) has developed a set of transportation models to respond to the Federal Requirements of Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) and Clean Air Act (CAA) of the 1990s. This model predicts changes in the future travel patterns in response to changes in the demographic profiles and transportation systems in the region. The NYBPM incorporates transportation behavior and relationships that have been developed with an extensive set of data that includes a major travel survey of households in the region, land-use inventories, socioeconomic data, traffic and transit counts, and travel times.

The model includes 28 counties in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut with 22 million populations. All road types from minor arterials and above are represented in the highway network. The transit route system includes all forms of public transportation at the individual route level in the transit network database.

The NYBPM 2005 is a powerful tool to perform Air Quality Conformity Determination, Regional Emissions Analysis, assess projects in the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) and Transportation Improvement Program (TIP). It provides measures for the Congestion Management Process (CMP) and to conduct Major Investment Studies (MIS). The model outputs are used for local studies (sub-regional, corridor analysis, and project level) in the region and by researches all over the world.

As part of NYMTC dedication to upgrading its forecasting model, the NYBPM 2005 was released in 2008 and replaced the NYBPM 2002. The NYBPM 2005 Base Year incorporated 2000 Census data and Socioeconomic/Demographic data (SED). The highway network volume attributes were updated based on 2005 screenline data. The transit network attributes also updated based on Hub-Bound Travel 2005 Report. The updated model incorporates network changes and the current planning assumptions and utilized American Community Survey (ACS) 2006 journey-to-work flow data for re-validation and re-calibration.

Model Characteristics

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The NYBPM is an activity/tour-based model for regional demand forecasting with the following characteristics:

• Use of tour (or paired journeys) as the basic unit of modeling
• Using the conceptual framework of daily activity agenda of individuals with accounting for intra-household interactions between members and constraints on peoples’ travel in terms of both time and space
• Use of micro-simulation approach to generate forecasts that are discrete choices for individuals
• Stop frequency and stop locations are modeled

Non motorized mode is analyzed as a separate mode