A New Travel Demand Forecasting Model for the
New York Metropolitan Area

BPM Used to Determine Conformity
The Best Practice Model, the tool used to conduct the Regional Emissions Analysis and measure Transportation Air Quality Conformity Determination, was updated to a new base year of 2002 reflecting the 2000 census data and job displacement in Manhattan as a result of 9/11 terrorist attack. Highway and transit data for 2002 were collected to update the networks and to integrate the buses from the transit network to the highway network links. The models were recalibrated to reduce the number of adjustment factors. The updated model was run for future year scenarios with revised socioeconomic forecasts and the VMTs and emissions were calculated for Transportation Improvement Plan (TIP) years.  

Efficient and effective transportation systems improve mobility and help communities flourish. They support regional economic development and preserve the quality of life in neighborhoods. Planning these infrastructures requires the ability to forecast demand on the transportation system through models that consider the complex movement of individuals in order to meet the changing needs of the traveling public.

The New York Metropolitan Transportation Council (NYMTC) has developed a set of new transportation models to meet the federal requirements for long-range planning including conformity (air quality), sub-regional and corridor-level analyses. NYMTC's Best Practice Model is an expression of the organization's focus on defining the transportation needs of the New York metropolitan region and choosing the right transportation investments to meet those needs.

The study area of the model includes 28 counties in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, comprised of 3,500 transportation analysis zones. All types of road facilities, from minor arterials and above are represented in the highway network used by the model. All forms of public transportation are represented at the individual route level in the transit network database.

The NYMTC Best Practice Model (NYBPM) incorporates transportation behavior and relationships that have been developed with an extensive set of data that includes a major travel survey of households in the region, land-use inventories, socioeconomic data, traffic and transit counts, and travel times.

Model Components

Background of the Travel Demand Models.

Models to predict trip generation, trip distribution, and mode choice.

Transportation Analysis Zone

Highway Networks
The Highway network represents the linkages and characteristics of the street and highway system in order to support estimation of traffic volumes, traffic speeds, and vehicle travel times on individual links of the system plus zone to zone travel times.

Transit Networks
The Transit network represents the connectivity, headways, speeds, and accessibility of transit services to support estimation of travel times on individual links and passenger volumes on individual transit lines and links.