A New Travel Demand Forecasting Model for
New York Metropolitan Area
BPM Used to Determine Conformity
|The Best Practice Model, the tool used to conduct the Regional Emissions Analysis and measure Transportation Air Quality Conformity Determination, was updated to a new base year of 2002 reflecting the 2000 census data and job displacement in Manhattan as a result of 9/11 terrorist attack. Highway and transit data for 2002 were collected to update the networks and to integrate the buses from the transit network to the highway network links. The models were recalibrated to reduce the number of adjustment factors. The updated model was run for future year scenarios with revised socioeconomic forecasts and the VMTs and emissions were calculated for Transportation Improvement Plan (TIP) years.
Efficient and effective transportation systems improve mobility
and help communities flourish. They support regional economic
development and preserve the quality of life in neighborhoods.
Planning these infrastructures requires the ability to forecast
demand on the transportation system through models that consider
the complex movement of individuals in order to meet the changing
needs of the traveling public.
The New York Metropolitan Transportation Council (NYMTC) has
developed a set of new transportation models to meet the federal
requirements for long-range planning including conformity
(air quality), sub-regional and corridor-level analyses. NYMTC's
Best Practice Model is an expression of the organization's
focus on defining the transportation needs of the New York
metropolitan region and choosing the right transportation
investments to meet those needs.
The study area of the model includes 28 counties in New York,
New Jersey, and Connecticut, comprised of 3,500 transportation
analysis zones. All types of road facilities, from minor arterials
and above are represented in the highway network used by the model.
All forms of public transportation are represented at the individual
route level in the transit network database.
The NYMTC Best Practice Model (NYBPM) incorporates transportation
behavior and relationships that have been developed with an
extensive set of data that includes a major travel survey of
households in the region, land-use inventories, socioeconomic
data, traffic and transit counts, and travel times.
Background of the Travel Demand Models.
Models to predict trip generation, trip distribution, and mode
Transportation Analysis Zone
The Highway network represents the linkages and characteristics
of the street and highway system in order to support estimation
of traffic volumes, traffic speeds, and vehicle travel times
on individual links of the system plus zone to zone travel times.
The Transit network represents the connectivity, headways, speeds,
and accessibility of transit services to support estimation
of travel times on individual links and passenger volumes on
individual transit lines and links.